China’s Interest in Kashmir: Geostrategic Implications of Sino-India Conflict on the IIOJK Dispute

Introduction

Over the past several decades, the Kashmir conflict was largely a bilateral issue between India and Pakistan over territorial claims born of the partition of British India. But as years pass by, with the emergence of a third major player, China, it has increasingly placed itself in the politics of this conflicted region. China already manages Aksai Chin, a region of strategic importance that India also claims, and has reinforced its rule by building infrastructure (such as National Highway 219) to connect Xinjiang with Tibet.[1] At the same time, China exerts influence through the China-Pakistan economic corridor (CPEC), which stretches through Gilgit-Baltistan and satisfies both of Beijing interest in the economic corridors to the Arabian Sea and in maintaining its regional control.[2]

This evolving landscape raises critical questions: To what extent does China’s expanding footprint in Kashmir reshape the geopolitical environment of South Asia? How does the Sino-India rivalry influence the longstanding dispute over Jammu & Kashmir? These questions form the core of this research, which seeks to fill scholarly gaps that typically frame Kashmir as a strictly Indo-Pakistani issue, overlooking the strategic implications of Chinese involvement.

This study aims to demonstrate that China’s growing engagement in the region transforms Kashmir into a tripolar geopolitical arena. It hypothesizes that Sino-Indian tensions not only intensify the Kashmir dispute but also redefine strategic alignments, particularly between India, Pakistan, and China. The paper will explore this through historical analysis, infrastructure developments (like CPEC and Aksai Chin), and recent border tensions to assess how Beijing’s interests and actions influence regional stability.

While focusing on geostrategic dimensions, this research will acknowledge limitations, including reliance on secondary sources and evolving political developments that may affect the dynamics under study. Nevertheless, by highlighting China’s role, the study aims to offer a more comprehensive understanding of Kashmir’s geopolitical trajectory.

Literature Review

In recent scholarship, the Kashmir conflict is still predominantly viewed through the India–Pakistan bilateral lens, with most studies emphasizing historical partition disputes, national narratives, and military confrontations. However, this framing largely omits the strategic involvement of a third, dynamic actor, China, and its increasingly pronounced role in reshaping regional geopolitics. In the wake of the Belt and Road Initiative, China’s investments, particularly under the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), have triggered a re-evaluation of those traditional views.

One 2025 study observes that CPEC has altered the regional power equilibrium and amplified China’s emergence as a central stakeholder in the Kashmir issue, especially as it runs through the Gilgit-Baltistan region.[3] Complementing this geopolitical perspective, the European Foundation for South Asian Studies highlights how CPEC consolidates China’s strategic interests in Gilgit-Baltistan and characterizes Islamabad’s moves, such as elevating the region's constitutional status, as steps toward aligning more closely with Chinese imperatives.[4]

Beyond geopolitical dimensions, empirical economic studies demonstrate CPEC’s broader impact across Pakistan. Research indicates significant positive effects from logistics developments on national economic growth[5], and tourism-focused investigations in Hunza show that while many view CPEC as a potential economic game-changer, there are legitimate concerns about environmental degradation and cultural disruption.[6] Against Pakistan’s internal context, analyses of CPEC’s broader implications present a dual-narrative: proponents laud it as a transformative infrastructure investment, while critics warn of opaque financial arrangements, debt burdens, and the risk of becoming overly dependent on Chinese influence.[7]

The strategic import of CPEC extends further into regional diplomacy. Observers argue that CPEC strengthens the Sino–Pakistani axis, serving both countries’ geopolitical ambitions while also deepening India’s strategic insecurities in South Asia.[8] Yet, the literature is less coarse in suggesting alternatives: some posit that a long-term settlement of the Kashmir conflict could, even if optimistically, benefit from CPEC-led regional integration, though this remains speculative rather than empirically grounded.[9]

Meanwhile, historical and border-security literature continues to provide context for the Sino–India dimension of the Kashmir dispute. The Macartney–MacDonald line (1899) remains a reference point in boundary discussions, though it was never adopted officially; it features prominently in contemporary debates over border resolution options in Aksai Chin. The notion of the “Line of Actual Control” (LAC) further encapsulates the ambiguity of the Sino–Indian border, it is undefined, undemarcated, and remains a persistent flashpoint for military and diplomatic engagements.

Across these literatures, geopolitical, economic, environmental, and historical, there is a recognizable shift toward understanding how infrastructure and strategic alignment are transforming the Kashmir conflict. However, most studies remain siloed, focusing on either economic outcomes, strategic implications, or historical border narratives without fully synthesizing them into a comprehensive triangular analysis involving India, Pakistan, and China.

Literature Gap

Despite significant progress, a holistic synthesis is lacking. No study fully integrates how China’s expanding infrastructure and economic footprint (via CPEC) intersects with historical border dynamics (such as unresolved LAC disputes and legacy boundary proposals) to reconfigure the Kashmir conflict from a bilateral contest to a complex tripolar struggle. This gap, where strategic, economic, and historical dimensions converge yet remain largely unconnected, presents a compelling opportunity for this research to contribute a more integrated, multi-dimensional perspective.

Theoretical Framework

The theoretical framework underpinning this research is rooted in Realism, a dominant school in international relations theory that emphasizes state behavior as motivated by power and security within an anarchic system of self-help. Classical realists such as Hans Morgenthau highlight the enduring relevance of national interest, defined in terms of power, over moral or ideological concerns.[10] Realism contends that in the absence of a central authority, states act rationally to ensure survival, relying primarily on their own capabilities.

Structural Realism, or Neorealism, elaborated by Kenneth Waltz, shifts attention from human nature to the systemic structure of international politics, where the anarchic distribution of power largely determines state behavior. Within Neorealism, two sub-streams diverge: Defensive Realism posits that states seek sufficient power to secure their survival and avoid aggressive expansion, thereby maintaining a stable balance of power; Offensive Realism, by contrast, argues that states are incentivized to accumulate as much power as possible, often through proactive or hegemonic strategies.

In applying these realist insights to the context of China's engagement in Kashmir, the theory helps explain Beijing’s strategic calculus. China’s infrastructural projects like CPEC traversing Gilgit-Baltistan, and its military strengthening near the LAC align with offensive realist behavior, aiming to extend influence and preempt Indian dominance. Concurrently, defensive realist logic is evident in China's efforts to bolster its borders and secure its western flank, balancing regional power dynamics without inviting overextension.[11] In combination, these realist lenses illustrate how China's maneuvering in Kashmir reflects calculated power-seeking and security preservation, framing the region as an arena of tripolar balance and competition.

Research Methodology

This study employs a qualitative research approach using secondary data analysis to explore China’s role in the Kashmir dispute. Qualitative methods are most appropriate for this research, as they allow for examining political narratives, strategic decisions, and policy implications that cannot be captured through purely quantitative measures.

The study draws on a wide range of sources, including academic books and articles, policy papers, think-tank publications, news outlets, and official statements from governments and international organizations. Using this diverse material ensures that the analysis remains both critical and relevant to current developments. The research relies on content analysis to identify recurring themes and patterns in China’s strategic approach to IIOJK. This involves looking at how China frames its interests in platforms such as the United Nations, its discourse surrounding CPEC, and its responses to tensions along the Sino-India border. Overall, this approach provides a flexible framework for understanding the evolving nature of China’s strategic interests in Kashmir.

China’s Strategic Interests in Kashmir

China has strategic interest in Kashmir that goes back many years and covers various domains. The national sovereignty and its controlling interests with Aksai Chin, which were acquired in the Sino-Indian War of 1962, remain the roots of Beijing interest in this area. It is a strategic land bridge between Xinjiang and Tibet and China has tightened its grip with infrastructure construction and surveillance along the border, including a high-altitude observatory like the Heweitan, which is also the highest outpost of the PLA in the border, and highlights long-term strategic importance of its claims in Ladakh.

On the economic side, the CPEC is a key to China regional calculus. This flagship of Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) connects Xinjiang to Gwadar Port through the territory of Gilgit-Baltistan therefore passing through the part of the territory which India claims as its own and therefore India believes this is an encroachment of its sovereignty.[12] In addition to its commercial prospects, CPEC will provide China with an access to the Indian Ocean, providing an overland alternative to the strategic Straits of Malacca that is a key part of the Strings of Pearls maritime strategy, which forms a chain of Chinese control across the Indian Ocean Region.[13] Furthermore, it consolidates Pakistan within China’s sphere, serving as both a geopolitical lever and internal security buffer, particularly regarding Xinjiang.

Militarily, China’s engagement is significant. Its role as a major arms supplier to Pakistan is evidenced by the provision, and even combat-level testing, of advanced weaponry such as J-10C fighters and PL-15E missiles, which have featured prominently in skirmishes with India.[14] This reinforces the military pillar of their partnership and indirectly pressures India on two fronts, westward via Pakistan and northward via the Himalayas. China's infrastructure build-up near the Line of Actual Control (LAC), including PLA deployment and logistics networks, indicates long-term defensive preparedness with offensive potential.[15]

Diplomatically, China’s posture remains calibrated. While formerly more vocal in supporting Pakistan’s efforts to internationalize the Kashmir issue, today China largely advocates a bilateral resolution, citing the 1972 Shimla Agreement, reflecting a shift toward cautious neutrality. Nonetheless, in multilateral forums, Beijing has shielded Pakistan, blocking listings of terrorist groups like Masood Azhar and preventing formal declarations blaming Pakistan-hosted militants.[16] During crises, from Kargil in 1999 to post-Mumbai tensions, China has often played the role of crisis manager, urging restraint and facilitating diplomatic backchannels. Yet, this diplomacy serves dual purposes: helping prevent escalation while maintaining the broader balance of power in South Asia.

When these factors are combined, China’s strategy in Kashmir reflects a careful balance of territorial control, economic expansion, military presence, and diplomatic messaging. Aksai Chin strengthens its internal connectivity, the CPEC extends its regional influence, military deployments reinforce deterrence along the border, and diplomatic efforts aim to project stability while protecting its ally. Consequently, the Kashmir issue has shifted from a bilateral dispute to a broader triangular geostrategic contest, with China exercising measured restraint and calculated influence.

Impact of the Sino–India Conflict on the Kashmir Dispute

The 2020 Galwan valley confrontation between the two nations served as a tipping point which even extended beyond the specific Sino-Indian front into the Kashmir strife. This face off heightened the tension in the region forcing India to strengthen its security infrastructure in Kashmir and reshape its strategic redemption, especially in such territories as IIOJK. Years of relative stagnancy at higher altitudes were replaced with new geopolitical vitality, as both neighbours re-evaluated threat perceptions and force dispositions across the lines of contested borders.

India had a multidimensional reaction in Kashmir. Internally, the revocation of Article 370 in 2019 had two clear purposes: solidifying its rule and providing a strong political message to Islamabad and Beijing alike. This act was also conceived to forestall the effect of external (mainly Chinese) leverage on India, along the northern frontier. Beijing stridently criticized the move arguing that it jeopardized sovereignty and destabilized the region.[17]

From a security perspective, the Galwan clash accelerated militarization in Kashmir. India significantly expanded its troop presence, strengthened surveillance systems, and improved infrastructure along both the Line of Actual Control and the Line of Control. Recent incidents of violence, such as the Pahalgam massacre, further heightened tensions, resulting in cross-border attacks and even the suspension of critical agreements like the Indus Waters Treaty. This assertive posture reflects India’s attempt to project strength and establish an environment aimed at deterring threats while reshaping the dynamics of trilateral relations.

On Pakistan’s side, China’s rising influence has both enabled and emboldened strategic gambits in Kashmir. By backing Pakistan diplomatically in strategic forums by blocking condemnations or investigative resolutions, China effectively shields its ally, complicating India’s attempts to internationalize or globalize the instability. Additionally, this support serves to counterbalance India’s outreach to partners in the Indo-Pacific (e.g. the U.S., Japan, and Australia) that might otherwise marginalize Islamabad.

Regionally, the security dynamics have grown increasingly volatile. Analysts warn that the intersection of India’s domestic consolidation (via Article 370 revocation), heightened militarization, and China’s backing of Pakistan risks creating a precariously unstable environment. Events like the Pahalgam attack illustrate this fragility, prompting immediate and forceful countermeasures, while raising fears of uncontrolled escalation.[18] In this context, Pakistan’s military doctrine of “bleeding India through a thousand cuts”, a sustained strategy utilizing proxy warfare and low-intensity conflict, becomes especially concerning.

The implication is there to see: whereas the ongoing Sino-India conflict may not directly entail Kashmir, it has a tangible effect on how all regional players choose to calculate their actions in the region. India is now far more entrenched politically and militarily, Pakistan has used China as a lever, and this region is now at risk of becoming a flashpoint in a wider tri polar contest. The processes can not only reinforce the conflict but they can also open a new escalation avenue, particularly with mutual loyalty and power position changes in South Asia.

China’s Role in Shaping the Regional Balance of Power

The strategic alliance between Pakistan and China has become one of the pillars of the South Asian geopolitics. This partnership is dictated by the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and cuts the field of economic, military and infrastructural. China has invested billions in Pakistan’s energy infrastructure, industrial zones, and transport networks, prominently the Gwadar Port and modernized Karakoram and rail links connecting to Xinjiang.[19] Militarily, Pakistan sources over 80% of its arms from China, ranging from submarines to fighter jets like the JF-17, reflecting a deep integration of defense capabilities.

Amid the evolving US–India strategic alignment, particularly through the Quad and Indo–Pacific frameworks, China appears to be recalibrating its regional posture. Rising protectionist policies and tariffs under US leadership have pushed India to pursue more balanced ties, including a cautious rapprochement with China, even while engaging with the Quad.[20] In response, China is reinforcing its South Asian influence through Beijing-led institutions like the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation and the Global Security Initiative, both aimed at offering alternatives to Western-led security models.

These developments bear significant implications for Kashmir’s political future. China’s support shields Pakistan diplomatically by limiting international consensus enabled through platforms like the UN, and indirectly influences regional discourse on Kashmir. Militarily, the dual-pronged threat, Pakistan reinforced by Chinese matériel plus China’s expanding border infrastructure, reshapes India’s security calculations across its western and northern frontiers.

In the future, China has long-term regional security architecture focusing on sustainable and multipolar arrangements. The Global Security Initiative emphasizes cooperative and non-confrontational security, whereas China uses its strategic institutions and investments systematically to gain a foothold in a region. The spread of the CPEC into Afghanistan, as the issue of its expansion was discussed in trilateral discussions, also illustrates the desire of Beijing to expand regional connectivity and solidify strategic influence.

Findings and Analysis

The findings from recent developments reveal a nuanced transformation: China is emerging as a pivotal third actor in the Kashmir conflict, no longer a passive observer, but an active shaper of the regional geopolitical landscape. The 2025 aerial skirmish, in which Pakistani forces employed Chinese-made J-10C fighter jets and PL-15E missiles, functioned both as a real-time test of China’s military technology and as a demonstration of its deepening role as Pakistan’s supplier and strategic partner. While Beijing privately celebrated the effectiveness of its equipment, Chinese officials maintained a public stance of restraint, seeking to preserve relations with India and avoid strengthening Washington’s expanding Indo-Pacific coalition.

Concurrently, China’s dual role as both enabler and restraint-seeker underscores its strategic balancing act, seeking to fortify Pakistan while preventing a regional spiral that could drive India deeper into U.S. alignment. The episode yielded valuable intelligence for China, including insights into Indian electronic warfare and drone capabilities, further elevating its strategic calculus in the region.[21]

On multilateral platforms, Chinese influence has also redefined the reaction to the Kashmir related crises. In the UN discussion of the attack Pahalgam terrorist attack, a former Indian envoy to the UN disparaged Beijing because it supported the Pakistani-led demand to conduct an investigation, a partnership that ultimately blocked any kind of agreement. This diplomatic protection gives China additional strategic space in support of Pakistan and has made it difficult to internationalize the Kashmir issue by India.

The new state of affairs has aggravated geopolitics, regionally. Analysts suggests that the strategic orientations of India have changed towards an inward-oriented strategy with a core emphasis on internal stability and defence preparedness, as China takes a regional stance with CPEC and intelligence gathering. The overlapping of military, diplomatic, and infrastructural powers draws Kashmir to a tripolar theater of rivalry taken to a higher level of competition.[22]

In sum, China’s deepening involvement in Kashmir is transforming the conflict from a bilateral confrontation into a complex trilateral contest. Beijing’s dual posture, empowering Pakistan while preserving delicate ties with India, creates a precarious balance. Its actions risk both escalation (through military and diplomatic support) and stabilization (via calls for restraint), positioning China as a strategic arbiter whose influence continues to define the contours of regional security.

Conclusion

This study analyzes how China’s expanding involvement has transformed the Kashmir conflict from a bilateral dispute into a tripolar geopolitical contest. Focusing on territorial control in Aksai Chin, economic influence via CPEC, military cooperation with Pakistan, and strategic diplomacy, the analysis demonstrates China’s deliberate and multifaceted role. Through infrastructure and defense investments, Beijing has bolstered Pakistan’s position, countered India’s unilateral actions, and intensified the region’s strategic volatility.

The increasing Chinese shadow over Kashmir has placed the main contribution of the study in context regarding the role of China as its pivotal stakeholder who has begun to transform the context of the conflict. This reframing is beneficial to the academic and policy discourses as it provides a more system-wide picture of how infrastructure, arms, and diplomacy interplay to affect regional stability.

For policymakers and regional actors, the implications are significant. India must recalibrate its security calculus, not only toward improving deterrence along the western front but also toward managing a more assertive China. Pakistan’s deepening alignment with Beijing offers both strategic support and dependency risks. Meanwhile, China walks a delicate line—its investments amplify both its influence and the potential for unintended escalation in South Asia.

Ultimately, this study points the way forward with several avenues for further research. Future investigations could focus on China's strategic calculus within multilateral institutions, its evolving high-altitude infrastructure along the LAC, or the responses of secondary actors such as Gulf mediators in shaping Kashmir’s future. By emphasizing the tripolar interplay of infrastructure, military posturing, and diplomacy, this research contributes a sharper, more integrated lens through which to assess the future trajectory of the Kashmir conflict.

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Exploitation of Human Rights : CASE STUDY OF CHILDREN IN INDIAN OCCUPIED KASHMIR Research Paper 6/29/2021

Psychological Impacts of Conflict: Case Study of Kashmiri Women Research Paper 11/12/2020

Kashmir and the emergence of new normal Research Paper 11/11/2020

THE CONTEMPORARY STATE OF GILGIT-BALTISTAN; A SPECTRE OF PARTITION Research Paper 11/11/2020