Environmental Changes in Azad Kashmir: Implications on Livelihood and Displacement (Neelum Valley, Muzaffarabad, and Poonch)
Environmental Changes in Azad Kashmir: Implications on Livelihood and Displacement (Neelum Valley, Muzaffarabad, and Poonch)
Abstract
In this paper, explore environmental changes that affects livelihoods and pattern of the displacement in Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK) special focus on Neelum valley, Poonch and Muzaffarabad. Using a different range of policy documents, academic literature, and empirical data, exploring how local economies especially foster, agriculture, tourism and wage labor, and glacier melt interplay with climate change, deforestation, landslides, soil erosion and flooding.
This research links biological and physical hazards to social vulnerability and governance decisions within the context of political ecology by using multi site qualitive approach.Results indicate that relocation occurs at different scales as a result of exposure to risks and demand on resources, seasonal labor migration to permanent settlement and exacerbate pre-existing inequalities The paper’s policy recommendations emphasize community-led early warning systems, adaptive social protection, ecological restoration, and risk-informed land-use planning.
Introduction
In mountain region environment change is rarely a single event; it is a process that unfolds unevenly over space and time. . In AJK, which is a part of the western Himalaya–Karakoram–Hindu Kush system, riverine flooding, slope instability, glacier mass loss, and warming trends are now commonplace aspects of daily life. New levels of risk and opportunity are created when these environmental dynamics combine with land-use conversion, infrastructure development, and population growth. Neelum Valley, Muzaffarabad, and Poonch, the three subregions studied here, provide a helpful comparison of exposure and capacity. The glaciated and forested Neelum is supported by a combination of tourism, non-timber forest products, and subsistence farming.
M.Hunain Fida
At the meeting point of the Jhelum and Neelum rivers, Muzaffarabad is a growing urban center that bears the physical and emotional scars of the 2005 Kashmir earthquake. Poonch is a politically sensitive agro-pastoral region where markets and movement are shaped by cross-border tensions and rainfall variability. Three questions are posed in this paper. First, which environmental changes are most noticeable in each of these subregions? Second, how do these changes exacerbate displacement and disrupt important sectors of livelihood? Third, what formal and informal policy tools are influencing adaptive capacity? By addressing these issues, the paper aims to shed light on specific, location-based dynamics that are pertinent to planning and rights-based development, going beyond general climate narratives.
Background and Study Area
AJK is situated on a steep relief with young, friable geology and active tectonics. Elevations vary from high alpine zones to the foothills of the lower Himalayas, creating abrupt microclimatic gradients over short distances. Despite providing slope stability and ecosystem services, forest types ranging from chir pine to temperate broadleaf and conifer are under stress due to illegal felling and reliance on fuelwood.
River systems, including the Neelum/ Kishanganga and Jhelum, carry high sediment loads, reworking channels during monsoon and glacial-melt seasons. Settlements cluster on narrow valley floors and mid-slope terraces; hazard exposure is thus structurally high. Road-building accelerates after each disaster cycle, improving market integration yet also creating more cut slopes and debris flows.
The region's economy has traditionally balanced wage labor, livestock rearing, diaspora remittances, subsistence agriculture (maize, wheat, potatoes, and horticulture), and, more recently, nature-based tourism. Remittance income can support unforeseen construction in floodplains and on unstable slopes, but it can also act as a buffer against shocks. Though unevenly across districts, the 2005 earthquake caused a major reconstruction wave that changed land use, building standards, and governance's attention to risk.
Literature Review
Rapid glacial retreat, changed snowfall patterns, and an increase in the frequency of extreme precipitation are all documented in studies on Himalayan environmental change. Research from Pakistan highlights the changing monsoon patterns and western disturbances, which have an overall effect on spring flows and summer flood peaks. According to mountain political ecology, hazard turns into a catastrophe when it combines with the vulnerability brought about by poverty, power dynamics, and land tenure agreements.
In particular, research conducted on AJK following the 2005 earthquake looked at reconstruction governance, peri-urban growth in Muzaffarabad, and landslide susceptibility. Studies of hydrology examine the sediment dynamics and flood regimes of the Jhelum–Neelum system, with implications for downstream risk. With strong cryospheric feedbacks, recent climate assessments of the Hindu Kush–Himalaya (HKH) project showed that warming has continued this century even under low-emission scenarios.
Displacement literature distinguishes between sudden-onset events (e.g., flash floods, landslides) and slow-onset stressors (e.g., soil degradation), noting that most mobility is internal, temporary, and multi-causal.⁷ For AJK, anecdotal and NGO reporting describe seasonal labor migration to cities and Gulf states, post-disaster relocations to safer hamlets, and voluntary retreat from flood-prone riverbanks. However, systematic, district-level tracking remains limited.
Gaps: Despite growing evidence, fine-resolution datasets for AJK’s highlands are sparse, and much research aggregates AJK with broader northern Pakistan, obscuring intra-regional variation. Few studies triangulate biophysical data with livelihood diaries, gendered labor analysis, or youth outmigration trends. This paper contributes by assembling multi-source evidence to trace linked environmental–livelihood–mobility pathways in the three focal areas.
Theoretical Frame
The framework for sustainable livelihoods and political ecology are consulted in this analysis. Political ecology emphasizes how social relations and biophysical processes—who controls resources, where people live, and how states invest—co-produce environmental risk. The livelihoods approach looks at how shocks change these assets and divides household strategies into five categories of capital: natural, physical, human, financial, and social. When the two are combined, it becomes clear why a single rainfall event causes displacement in one village but not in another: kin networks, land tenure, credit availability, and women's mobility norms are all just as important as rainfall intensity.
Methodology
A qualitative, comparative case design with embedded mixed evidence is used in this study. Peer-reviewed publications, hydrology and climate assessments, government and non-governmental organization reports, and secondary statistics are some examples of data sources. The three subregions Neelum Valley, Muzaffarabad, and Poonch are the units of analysis. Maximum variation within a shared mountain context is the rationale behind case selection.
Environmental Change Drivers in AJK
Global assessments and regional temperature records indicate that the HKH is warming, with higher rates at higher elevations. Warmer winters can destabilize slopes through freeze-thaw cycles, decrease snowpack, and change the timing of melts. The hydrograph is altered by shifts in monsoon intensity and western disturbance patterns, which lead to abrupt flood peaks and drought stress.
Perennial snowfields and tiny valley glaciers in Neelum's upper reaches control summer flows. The risk of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) is increased by debris-covered tongues and the loss of glacial mass. Smaller moraine-dammed ponds in AJK need attention because of their short warning lead time, whereas large, well-instrumented lakes are more prevalent in the Karakoram. Some areas of Neelum and Poonch have less canopy cover due to the demand for fuelwood, unofficial timber harvesting, and pasture expansion. Deforestation deteriorates terraces, irrigation channels, and riverbeds downstream, increasing the risk of landslides and sediment yield.
Additionally, the loss of forests reduces livelihood portfolios by undermining non-timber revenue from honey and medicinal plants.Road cuts create small landslides that accrete as debris fans in channels on steep hillslopes, frequently without proper drainage or slope stabilization. In Muzaffarabad, housing has been shifted into flood-prone areas due to post-2005 reconstruction and urban sprawl. In Poonch, gully erosion and soil structure loss result from terrace abandonment due to outmigration.
Agriculture and fish habitats downstream may become more complicated as a result of hydropower diversions and peaking operations that change daily flow regimes and sediment transport. Although hydropower can support local development, during extreme events, the risk of flooding and bank erosion may be increased by inadequate environmental flow provisions or sediment flushing techniques.
Regional Case Studies
A. Neelum Valley
Upper Neelum experiences snow avalanches, spring melt surges, and monsoon cloudbursts. Forest fire risk rises in prolonged pre-monsoon dry spells. Slope failures along new roads intermittently sever market access.
. Households blend subsistence crops, fruit orchards (apples, apricots), livestock, and seasonal wage labor (tourism, construction). Women’s labor underpins fodder collection, fuelwood gathering, and domestic water management. When springs run low under reduced recharge, time poverty intensifies for women and girls.
Road accessibility, security perceptions, and weather all have a significant impact on Neelum's tourism economy. Owners of guesthouses and transporters may lose their entire yearly income if landslides close during the busiest time of year. Uncontrolled tourism has also led to encroachments along riverbanks, making areas more vulnerable to flash floods. Household mobility is frequently staged, with short-term moves during dangers (rockfall, riverbank overflows) followed by longer-term choices (sending a son to work in Rawalpindi or Muzaffarabad). Ironically, remittances not only fund the construction of stronger homes but also cement buildings in dangerous areas.
B. Muzaffarabad
Muzaffarabad, which is situated at the confluence of rivers, is vulnerable to both flooding and landslides. Mass wasting and long-lasting slope instabilities were caused by the 2005 Mw 7.6 earthquake; many cuts are still marginal. While some building standards have improved since the disaster, floodplains have seen the expansion of informal settlements.
With the growth of services and petty trade, agriculture has retreated. In order to diversify their income, many peri-urban households rent rooms to seasonal workers and students, which crowds out neighborhoods that are vulnerable to crime. When drainage networks are unable to handle heavy rainfall, pluvial flooding occurs, damaging inventory and impeding microbusinesses.
Families affected by earthquakes were given aid for basic housing, but some were forced to return to dangerous areas due to secondary risks and limited means of subsistence. Flood seasons continue to cause micro-displacements that last anywhere from a few days to several weeks, which reduces small traders' creditworthiness and savings.
C. Poonch
The monsoon rains are crucial to Poonch's lower elevations. Variability in rainfall, sporadic dry spells, and heavy rainstorms erode soils and cause gully and rill erosion. On common lands, forest thinning has decreased spring reliability and infiltration. Frequent cross-border shelling exacerbates environmental stressors and limits field and pasture access. In the event of an escalation, households have contingency plans that involve asset loss and disruption of education, such as staying with relatives inland. Agro-pastoralism maize, wheat, pulses, and small ruminants remains central.
As yields fluctuate, male outmigration rises, leaving feminized agriculture with higher care burdens. Terrace maintenance declines without sufficient labor, accelerating soil loss. Although it creates financial buffers, seasonal migration to Gulf states or urban centers can deplete local labor pools. Return migration provides funding for home improvements, frequently without geotechnical advice, resulting in a patchwork of vulnerabilities.
Cross-Case Analysis: Livelihoods Under Stress
Crop calendars are shifted by heat stress and unpredictable precipitation, which also lowers yields and raises input costs (seed, fertilizer, and irrigation pumping when feasible). As temperatures rise, orchard pests spread upslope. When landslides cut roads, farmers report higher post-harvest losses. There is little use of crop insurance, and informal risk-sharing among family members slows but does not stop asset depletion.
Harvests are moved farther from villages as a result of forest degradation, which lowers the availability of fuelwood and timber. Women and children who are responsible for collection bear a disproportionate amount of the time burden. Although they generate cash income, non-timber products (such as mushrooms and medicinal herbs) are subject to market volatility and resource depletion. When local institutions are given the authority to establish regulations and enforce sustainable harvest levels, community forestry initiatives show promise.
Although it is extremely susceptible to hazard news cycles, tourism thrives during stable seasons. Construction on flood benches results from a lack of zoning; a single flash flood can force microbusiness owners into bankruptcy. Slope bioengineering, permeable parking, and riverbank setbacks are examples of green infrastructure investments that can stabilize profits but call for cooperation between private operators and local government agencies.
In all three areas, remittances serve as a buffer, but they can also be used to fund risky reconstruction. When transportation routes fail, wage labor markets contract during extended disruptions. Families with multiple sources of income—a shop in Muzaffarabad, a small orchard in Neelum, and a son overseas—are more resilient to shocks than those in Poonch that only have one source of income.
Displacement: Forms, Triggers, and Consequences
Short-term evacuations during floods or landslides, seasonal job relocations, permanent relocations following a disaster, and planned retreat from persistent hotspots (such as eroding riverbanks) are some examples of displacement. Cloudburst floods, GLOFs, dam releases during extreme events, and slope failures along transportation corridors are examples of sudden triggers. Water scarcity, terrace degradation, and cumulative erosion of livelihoods are slow triggers that make it impossible to stay.
When cadastral records are inadequate, displacement creates legal ambiguities over land titles, disrupts education, and disrupts care networks. In temporary shelters, women and the elderly are particularly vulnerable. Long-term displacement can weaken social cohesiveness, but if governance promotes safe return or dignified resettlement, it can also create networks that subsequently aid in recovery. Official disaster loss accounting often aggregates AJK within national figures, masking local dynamics. Participatory mapping and community-based monitoring can close gaps, particularly for minor occurrences that don't reach national thresholds but eventually influence mobility choices. ⁷
Governance, Rights, and Institutions
Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR).
With the implementation of early warning pilots and school retrofits after 2005, the DRR architecture improved. However, there are still gaps in enforcement, turnover, and budgetary restrictions. The application of river setbacks varies, and geotechnical supervision is frequently absent from hillside construction.
Natural Resource Governance.
Local councils and forest departments have similar goals, which occasionally clash: conservation versus revenue generation. It is possible to align incentives toward slope stability by fortifying community forestry agreements and elucidating tenure.
Social Protection.
Post-flood cash transfers lessen immediate hardship, but they hardly ever finance risk mitigation. Relief and resilience can be linked through adaptive safety nets, such as index insurance, payment for ecosystem services, and contingent cash-for-work on bioengineering.
Knowledge and Education.
Although hazard literacy increases readiness, women's and girls' access to training may be limited. Credibility is increased when formal early warning incorporates local knowledge, such as slope sounds, spring behavior, and snow signs.
Policy Recommendations
- Expand low-cost rain and river gauges, integrate community observers, and use multiple channels (sirens, SMS, mosque loudspeakers) with clear evacuation protocols.
- Introduce contingent cash transfers indexed to rainfall/river thresholds; link cash-for-work to slope stabilization and drainage maintenance.
- Protect springs and gravity-fed schemes through source protection zones; promote efficient stoves to reduce fuelwood pressure; support women’s producer groups for value-added forest products.
- Establish no-build buffers along rivers; require permeable surfaces and on-site drainage for lodges; create a resilience certification to incentivize safer investments.
- Develop a district disaster observatory to compile micro-events, with public dashboards; partner with universities for landslide inventories and rapid post-event surveys.
Conclusion
In AJK, environmental change is not a hypothetical future; rather, it is already occurring, albeit unequally distributed and mediated by society. Although the hazard regimes and livelihood mixes of Neelum, Muzaffarabad, and Poonch differ, they are all affected by the same biophysical stressors and governance deficiencies. Climate variability, floodplain encroachment, unstable road cuts, and deforestation combine to cause frequent, occasionally predictable shocks. Families adapt by shifting crops, diversifying their sources of income, and migrating, but many are still at risk of catastrophic lossThe future is institutional and political, not just technical, and calls for open regulations, community involvement, and consistent risk reduction funding.
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