Rivers as Weapons: Hydropower, Control, and Climate Risk in Kashmir

Rivers as Weapons: Hydropower, Control, and Climate Risk in Kashmir


What can be more dangerous than rivers being turned into instruments of control, carrying the weight of political intent? The tragedy in Pahalgam marked the beginning of a new chapter in India’s water strategy in Kashmir: first, the unilateral suspension of the Indus Water Treaty, and then the sudden acceleration of controversial hydropower projects on the Chenab River.


These moves are not just about energy, they are a demonstration of control over Kashmir, its resources, and a future already strained by climate stress. At a time when 153 countries share international waters, unilateral actions by a nuclear power risk destabilizing not just the region, but the world.


The immediate green light for the Dulhasti Stage-II project and the revival of the long-delayed Sawalkote Dam reveal a calculated pivot. Diplomacy is sidelined, and infrastructure is wielded as a tool of authority. In a region where sovereignty is contested and legitimacy questioned, dams are treated as symbols of permanence. Concrete is meant to speak louder than consent. On paper, these hydropower projects are clean-energy initiatives. In reality, the Chenab basin is already under severe climate strain.


Glaciers, the river’s main source, have lost nearly one-third of their meltwater in recent decades, a critical seasonal regulator. Aggressive dam construction on such a river system risks destabilizing flows, ecosystems, and communities. Environmental scientists have repeatedly warned that “run-of-the-river” projects are far from harmless. Blasting tunnels through fragile mountains triggers landslides.


Diverting flows disrupts river ecologies. Clearing forests removes natural buffers. In Kashmir’s seismic belt, these projects multiply risks, yet approvals are fast-tracked, impact assessments are thinned, and public consultations reduced to mere formalities. Development appears less about local need than about projecting national power.


The suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty removes both procedural hurdles and moral restraint. India is rushing to claim river projects and assert control over Kashmir’s waters before international pressure can mount. Meanwhile, Pakistan faces immediate  consequences: fluctuations in the Chenab and Jhelum threaten irrigation, agriculture, and food security. Around 90% of Pakistan’s agricultural output, 24% of its GDP, and 18 million hectares of farmland depend on these rivers. Once water becomes unpredictable, stability itself becomes fragile.


What is unfolding on the Chenab is more than a development debate. It is a warning about governance in an era of climate crisis. Using rivers as tools of domination is a dangerous gamble. Glaciers ignore borders, and rivers do not obey politics. By attempting to cement control over Kashmir through dams and diversions, India risks accelerating the very instability it seeks to manage. In the struggle for power, the rivers and the people who depend on them—may pay the highest price.

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